The 2024-25 sugar season has been marked by uncertainty, with fluctuating production estimates and significant setbacks in key sugar-producing states. Initial industry projections placed sugar production at 333 lakh tonnes, leading the central government to permit 10 lakh tonnes of sugar exports in January 2025. However, as the season progressed, estimates were repeatedly revised downward, painting a challenging picture for the industry.
Experts had already warned of potential trouble ahead. Poor crop health in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, which together account for 80% of India’s sugar output, had raised alarms. Red Rot and Top Shoot Borer infestations devastated sugarcane fields in Uttar Pradesh, while premature flowering in Maharashtra and Karnataka led to stunted growth and lower sugar yields.
Adding to the difficulties, the Maharashtra government postponed the crushing season due to elections, while Karnataka delayed crushing until mid-November. Had these states commenced crushing earlier, the situation might have been even more severe.
By March 15, 2025, data showed a steep decline in crushing numbers compared to the previous year. Maharashtra, home to 200 operational mills, saw its season shrink to just 83 days, far below the industry’s viability threshold of 140-150 days. “This short season has put Maharashtra’s sugar industry under severe financial distress,” said NFCSF President Harshvardhan Patil, emphasizing the challenge of sustaining operations year-round with such a brief production period.
Despite the current crisis, optimism is building for the 2025-26 season. According to NFCSF Managing Director Prakash Naiknaware, satisfactory rainfall in 2024 has led to large-scale new sugarcane plantations. Additionally, improved water levels in reservoirs will support ratoon crops in the latter half of the next season.
Weather agencies, including India’s Meteorological Department, Australia, Europe, and the U.S., have predicted normal rainfall in 2025, further fueling hopes of a production rebound.
“If the weather remains favorable, sugarcane availability will improve significantly, leading to a strong recovery in 2025-26 and possibly extending into 2026-27,” Naiknaware added. While the industry grapples with short-term hardships, a brighter future may be just around the corner.
